Eyeing a condo near the Friendly Confines and wondering if 2026 is your year to buy? You’re not alone. Rents and prices in Wrigleyville tend to run hot, and Cubs season adds unique twists that can help or hurt your bottom line. In this guide, you’ll see a clear way to compare renting vs buying, simple number examples, and the neighborhood factors that most change the math. Let’s dive in.

How to compare rent and buy in Wrigleyville

Buying vs renting comes down to five drivers:

• Monthly cash flow. Compare your monthly owner cost to your current rent for a similar home.
• Upfront costs. Down payment and closing costs are real cash you could invest elsewhere.
• Long‑term wealth. Principal paydown and price appreciation build equity, less selling costs.
• Taxes. Mortgage interest and property taxes may lower after‑tax cost if you itemize.
• Opportunity cost. Your down payment could earn a return if you keep renting.

Your time horizon matters. Shorter stays usually favor renting because closing and selling costs are high. The longer you own, the more time equity and appreciation have to work.

A simple framework you can use

Use these steps to build a side‑by‑side comparison for a Wrigleyville condo:

1. Pull local sale comps. Focus on recent Wrigleyville condo sales by bed count and condition. This sets your purchase price and helps estimate future resale.
2. Gather true market rent. Use comparable units within a few blocks for a realistic rent baseline. If you plan to rent your unit in the future, note potential rent as well.
3. Get real mortgage quotes. Price both 20 percent down with no PMI and a low‑down option with PMI. Ask for a 30‑year fixed estimate appropriate for your credit profile.
4. Estimate property taxes. Use an effective rate for a Wrigleyville condo and cross‑check sample tax bills for similar properties in Cook County.
5. Confirm HOA dues and inclusions. Identify what dues cover, from heat and water to insurance and parking. Ask about pending or recent special assessments.
6. Add insurance and maintenance. Price a condo HO‑6 policy and set a maintenance reserve. A common rule of thumb is 0.5 to 1.5 percent of home value per year, adjusted by building age.
7. Include closing and selling costs. Use common local ranges for title, attorney, transfer taxes, and a standard broker fee when you sell.
8. Consider tax effects. Keep the federal SALT cap of $10,000 in mind. If you do not itemize, your tax benefit may be limited.
9. Factor the down payment’s opportunity cost. Use a modest after‑tax return assumption to reflect what that cash could earn if you did not buy.

Formula quick‑hits:

• Monthly mortgage P&I = loan × [r / (1 − (1 + r)^−n)], where r is monthly rate and n is total months.
• Monthly owner cost = P&I + property tax/12 + HOA + insurance + maintenance reserve + PMI (if any) + down‑payment opportunity cost.
• Breakeven happens when equity gained offsets the extra cash you spent vs renting.

What 2026 examples might look like

The numbers below are illustrative to show how the math works. Plug in current Wrigleyville data before you decide.

Scenario A: Mid‑range condo example

• Purchase price: $450,000
• Down payment: 20 percent ($90,000). Loan: $360,000 at 6.5 percent, 30‑year fixed
• Monthly P&I: about $2,277
• Property tax estimate: 2.0 percent of price annually, about $750 per month
• HOA: $400 per month
• Insurance: about $100 per month
• Maintenance reserve: 1.0 percent annually, about $375 per month
• Opportunity cost on down payment: about $300 per month using a 4 percent annual return

Estimated monthly owner cost: $4,202.

Compare to renting a similar Wrigleyville unit at $3,000 per month. You would spend about $1,202 more per month to own in this example. Over a year, that is about $14,424 of extra cash outflow.

Breakeven estimate: After seven years, principal paydown and appreciation can offset that gap. With about 3 percent annual appreciation, equity gains and principal paid could roughly balance the extra cash in about 6 to 9 years, depending on your exact inputs and selling costs.

Scenario B: Premium 2‑bedroom near the park

• Purchase price: $650,000
• Down payment: 20 percent ($130,000). Loan: $520,000 at 6.5 percent
• Monthly P&I: about $3,100
• Property tax: about $1,083 per month
• HOA: $600 per month
• Insurance: about $150 per month
• Maintenance reserve: about $542 per month
• Opportunity cost on down payment: about $433 per month

Estimated monthly owner cost: $5,908.

Compare to renting a similar 2‑bed at $3,800 per month. You would spend about $2,108 more per month to own. Breakeven likely stretches past 10 years unless appreciation is strong or you unlock legal, building‑approved rental income.

Notes on PMI and low‑down options

If you put less than 20 percent down, add PMI. A common range is about 0.3 to 1.0 percent of the loan annually in early years. PMI increases monthly cost and can push breakeven further out until you reach enough equity to remove it.

Sensitivity: what moves the breakeven

Small changes can shift your timeline by years. Watch these levers closely:

• Mortgage rate. Every bump in the rate increases P&I noticeably.
• HOA dues. Dues above $500 per month are common in amenity buildings and tilt the math toward renting for shorter holds.
• Special assessments. A one‑time assessment can change your near‑term cost. Review the reserve study and recent assessment history.
• Property taxes and insurance. Higher effective taxes or premiums raise monthly owner cost.
• Market rent. If comparable rent jumps, owning may look better. If rent softens, renting can win.
• Appreciation. Strong, sustained appreciation shortens breakeven. Flat prices lengthen it.
• PMI and down payment size. Avoiding PMI and making a larger down payment can improve cash flow and reduce borrowing costs, though you trade off opportunity cost.

Wrigleyville factors that change the math

• Cubs season and events. Proximity to Wrigley Field can support higher listing prices and market rent. It can also bring noise, heavy foot traffic, and added wear. Units one or two blocks from the park often carry a location premium. Quieter blocks further out may command less.
• Short‑term rental rules. Chicago requires registration and compliance for short‑term rentals. Many condo HOAs restrict or prohibit short‑term stays. Do not count on event‑day income unless your building’s bylaws and city rules clearly allow it.
• Parking and permits. Street parking is tight on game days. Factor the cost of a deeded spot or monthly garage rent, which can meaningfully add to your monthly spend.
• Building age and reserves. Older masonry buildings often face tuckpointing, roof, and envelope projects. Verify the HOA reserve study and ask about recent or pending assessments.
• Insurance and risk. Event‑day crowds can influence claims history and premiums. Confirm what the condo master policy covers and what your HO‑6 policy needs to cover.
• Liquidity and timing. Showing schedules and buyer traffic can fluctuate with the Cubs calendar. Pricing and timing strategy should account for seasonality.

Decision timelines: short vs long hold

If your time horizon is under five years, renting usually wins because upfront costs and selling costs are hard to earn back. If you expect to own for 5 to 10 years or more, owning can pull ahead as principal paydown and appreciation compound. In Wrigleyville specifically, typical breakeven timelines often fall in the mid‑range of about 5 to 10 plus years, depending on taxes, HOA dues, rates, and appreciation.

Step‑by‑step plan to run your numbers

Use this quick checklist to build your 2026 comparison:

• Define the target unit. Bed count, square footage, and location within a few blocks of Wrigley Field.
• Pull sale comps. Review recent Wrigleyville condo solds and actives for your unit profile.
• Pull rent comps. Match bed count, size, and building type within the same micro‑area.
• Get lender scenarios. Price both 20 percent down and a low‑down option with PMI. Ask for closing cost estimates.
• Verify taxes. Look up a few similar buildings’ tax bills in Cook County to set an effective rate.
• Read HOA docs. Confirm dues, inclusions, rental policy, reserves, and any pending projects or assessments.
• Price insurance. Ask for an HO‑6 quote and understand what the master policy covers.
• Build a spreadsheet. Include monthly owner cost, monthly rent, tax benefits if you itemize, appreciation scenarios, and selling costs. Review 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10‑year outcomes.

When renting wins vs buying wins

Renting may win if:

• You plan to move within three to four years.
• HOA dues are high relative to rent or the building is facing assessments.
• You need flexibility and prefer not to tie up a large down payment.

Buying may win if:

• You expect to stay 5 to 10 plus years and can handle near‑term costs.
• You secure a unit with solid reserves, manageable dues, and no restrictive surprises.
• You can avoid PMI, pay down principal, and benefit from moderate appreciation.

How we help you make the call

You do not need to guess. Our team brings a practical, investor‑grade process to a lifestyle decision:

• Real comps, not averages. We pull building‑level data for your exact micro‑area.
• HOA and risk review. We flag reserve strength, assessment history, and insurance gaps.
• Lender‑ready scenarios. We coordinate sample quotes and walk through PMI and 15 vs 30‑year options.
• Wrigleyville context. We weigh game‑day dynamics, parking, and seasonality in both pricing and exit planning.
• Off‑market access. We source on‑market and private opportunities aligned with your budget.

If you want a clean, local look at rent vs buy for a specific building or block, let’s talk. Connect with the Cyrus Seraj Group for a free market consultation.

FAQs

What is the typical break‑even time to buy a Wrigleyville condo in 2026?

• Many buyers see mid‑range timelines of about 5 to 10 plus years, driven by HOA dues, taxes, rates, and appreciation assumptions.

How do Cubs game days affect the rent vs buy math near Wrigley Field?

• They can support higher prices and rents, but also add noise and wear; proximity premiums often rise within one to two blocks of the park.

Can I use short‑term rentals to offset my mortgage in Wrigleyville?

• Only if Chicago rules and your HOA bylaws allow it; many buildings restrict or prohibit short‑term stays, so verify before you count the income.

How much should I budget for HOA dues and possible assessments?

• Dues vary by building and amenities, and older buildings may face periodic capital projects; review the reserve study and assessment history carefully.

What property tax number should I use in my estimate?

• Use an effective Cook County rate for comparable Wrigleyville condos and confirm with recent tax bills from similar buildings.

Does putting 20 percent down really matter for this decision?

• Yes, avoiding PMI reduces monthly cost and can shorten breakeven, though you trade the opportunity cost of tying up more cash.

What if I plan to sell within three to four years?

• Renting usually makes more sense at short horizons because closing and selling costs are hard to recover in a brief hold.